Newsroom Blog
CONTAINER shipping has been a tale of high drama over the past few years. The industry embarked on the biggest shipbuilding programme of all time on the expectation that world trade would continue to expand at breakneck speed.
The crash was then more spectacular than even the gloomiest soothsayers had imagined. Demand growth did not just slow; volumes shrank, and by no small amount.
Port throughput figures and cargo liftings this year are almost certain to look fairly respectable compared with 2009. For a better idea of whether container shipping is on the mend, the numbers need to be compared with 2008 or 2007, and that will present a far less positive picture.
In 2002, the market turned suddenly after collapsing in 2001, and continued on its upward path with hardly a break for the next three years. The charter market retreated for a while, but bounced back until the global banking crisis sent the whole industry into meltdown.
But the 2002 rebound followed China’s admission to the World Trade Organisation, unleashing a massive export drive.
There is not another China lurking round the corner, and this recovery is likely to be long and fraught.
It may also provide the catalyst for more consolidation, since some players have been mortally wounded. They may muddle through the next few months, but expect some merger and acquisition activity in the not too distant future.
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