CHINA’s swift economic rebound from its Covid-induced lockdown saw tanker tonne-mile demand increase to the tune of just under 7% last year.

That is significant given that China now accounts for a third of all tonne-mile demand, but even China’s heft was not enough to outweigh the huge falls elsewhere and things are not looking up for the rest of 2021.

Oil producers have lowered production since the second quarter of 2020 to protect oil prices and draw inventories, while refineries have slowed buying.

A second wave of lockdown quarantines and travel restrictions, especially in Europe and the UK as well as China, is further denting demand for transport fuels of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline.

So with all that in mind, our regular monthly markets outlook begins where our last edition left off — looking at toasters, obviously. 

The humble toaster has become something of a benchmark in shipping circles of late after CMA CGM chief executive Rodolphe Saadé sought to explain sky-high container rates to the Financial Times last year by pointing out that because Americans were no longer heading into the office “they are staying at home, they need to have breakfast, they need toasters”.

For this edition of the Markets Outlook we’re asking whether tankers will have their own ‘toaster moment’ once the Covid vaccine kick-starts the global economy back into life.

It’s an interesting question, but as Lloyd’s List markets editor Michelle Wiese Bockmann reminds us, it currently costs around $9,000 to ship a 40 ft container of toasters from China to the US west coast, but only around $2 for a barrel of crude from the US Gulf to China.

The reality is that the tanker sector is now extraordinarily out of sync with freight earnings when measured against containerships and bulk carriers.

Meanwhile, the Maritime Markets Outlook team are also examining the trends shaping the dry bulk trades in this month’s edition — a talking point that inevitably leads Lloyd’s List Intelligence head of consulting Christopher Palsson to consider the impact of President Trump’s departure from the White House. 

“The new president has the potential to make significant changes to the US trade policies with direct impacts on seaborne trade,” argues Mr Palsson, pointing out that the US top-10 seaborne trade partners account for 55% of the total US trade.

Topping the list are China, the European Union, Mexico and Canada. During Donald Trump’s time in office, trade agreements or negotiations with these partners were either renegotiated or terminated.

Liquid and dry bulk imports are largely sourced from neighbouring countries, with the exception of crude oil from the Middle East.

Much of the US containerised imports comes from China and the EU.

Liquid bulk volume destinations are topped by China, Mexico and Canada.

And a significant share of US dry bulk exports consists of grain and coal to China and other countries on the top 10 list.

“So the new administration’s position on trade relations will be important,” say Mr Palsson. “Maybe we should not expect all that much change in the actual terms of trade, at least not in the short-term, but we might see a higher degree of predictability and this is positive in itself.”