Market Insight
Our sector specialists have been examining the supply-demand factors of container, tanker and dry bulk markets regularly. Our aim is to look through rumours, noises and explain what the current market dynamics and future trends are. After all, markets are where shipping companies are making or losing their money.
Containers: Charter rate
Latest From Charter rates
Boxship charter market booms as supply remains tight
The early peak season has caught carriers by surprise. Tonnage providers are reaping the benefits
Higher charter rates boost MPC Container Ships’ outlook
Houthi attacks of shipping have inverted the supply and demand imbalance that was expected this year. Diversions and increased teu per mile demand have soaked up capacity
Maersk justifies more rate hikes amid analyst doubt on Asia-Europe capacity loss
While tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, carriers are pushing for a new round of freight rate increases
Bulk carrier values still rising despite freight market corrections
‘The capesize market is structurally tight — not only are newbuilding deliveries slowing down to multi-year lows in 2024-26 but there are no VLOCs delivering until late 2026,’ said Braemar analyst Alexandra Alatari
Containership charter rates stay strong but overcapacity risk remains
Red Sea crisis means demand for chartered boxships shows no sign of easing, but the sector faces uncertainty from the remaining large newbuilding orderbook
Euroseas scores higher charter deal for newly retrofitted boxship
Latest retrofit aims to reduce consumption by 25% — equivalent to a reduction of 8,800 tonnes of CO2 a year
Containers: Between the lines
Latest From Between the lines
Between the lines: Fourth-quarter performance shows signs of carrier weakness
A stellar financial performance last year was clouded by a significantly weak fourth quarter, as demand waned and average freight rates fell across the board
Between the lines: First-quarter carrier results show scale of cash windfall
Lines’ level of profitability is not driven by a volume growth, as apart from Zim, all other carriers that report global volumes either recorded sharp on-year declines, or in the case of Hapag-Lloyd, a marginal 0.4% increase. The ebit figures are more so a reflection of the current freight rate environment
Between the lines: Container sector faces uncertainty ahead of peak season
Sea-Intelligence’s Alan Murphy highlights a shift in North American traffic, systemic changes in transpacific vessel sizes and the prospect of an equipment capacity crunch
Between the Lines: Empty box flood poses new supply chain challenges
A return to normality for the global supply chain will bring huge relief to container shipping, but the next headache will be repatriating empty boxes particularly on the transpacific trade
Between the Lines: Bad news for shippers in 2022
Freight rates are expected to remain at record highs, as congestion problems that plagued 2021 continue. Schedule reliability will also likely repeat last year’s dismal performance, making ‘resilience and robustness’ essential to supply chain planning
Between the lines: Lower demand pressure had little impact on box carrier reliability
The latest global schedule reliability data shows carriers arriving ‘on-time’ with around one in three vessels, as the seasonal decline in volumes had little impact on port punctuality
Dry Bulk: Capesize
Latest From Capes
Smaller bulkers are a good bet, but capes may reward the brave
Ursa Shipbrokers’ Simon Ward says the future looks bright for smaller bulkers against a backdrop of global conflict, growth in the developing world and scarce tonnage, with efficient newbuildings too costly to justify
Safe Bulkers seals more capesize charters
Eight capesizes are earning an average of $24,400 per day for the next two years
Shipping markets no longer just about supply and demand, says Norden’s Rindbo
‘The ability to stay nimble to react to changes in shipping markets is more important than ever,’ says Norden chief executive
Bulk carrier values still rising despite freight market corrections
‘The capesize market is structurally tight — not only are newbuilding deliveries slowing down to multi-year lows in 2024-26 but there are no VLOCs delivering until late 2026,’ said Braemar analyst Alexandra Alatari
Capesize correction gathers steam as spot rates and FFAs fall
Following a counter-seasonally strong Q1, capesize rates and futures are in retreat. Nevertheless, shares of listed dry bulk owners are holding on to much of their 2024 gains, at least so far
Bulk carrier values strengthen on robust earnings
Last month there were 33 capesize sales concluded compared with just nine in February 2023, according to Veson dry cargo analyst
Dry Bulk: Handies
Latest From Handies
Smaller bulkers are a good bet, but capes may reward the brave
Ursa Shipbrokers’ Simon Ward says the future looks bright for smaller bulkers against a backdrop of global conflict, growth in the developing world and scarce tonnage, with efficient newbuildings too costly to justify
Shipping markets no longer just about supply and demand, says Norden’s Rindbo
‘The ability to stay nimble to react to changes in shipping markets is more important than ever,’ says Norden chief executive
Precious Shipping sees ‘extreme volatility’ ahead for shipping market
Fiscal and monetary stimulus by governments could boost the markets, as could a better steel sector, easing of financial conditions in China, and better-than-expected US economic growth, while a low orderbook will help reduce supply-side pressure
Dry bulk should see healthy rates this year, says Braemar
Capesize lift should come in a few months as China’s industrial output ramps up following its zero-Covid policy, says shipping analyst Alexandra Alatari
Dry bulk market failing to inspire
Hopes of a post-Chinese New Year boost fail to materialise with capesizes bearing the brunt of the losses, while sub-capesize segments in limbo trading in the $7,000 per day range mainly due to conflicting signals
Handysizes maintain strong performance
Handysizes have shown greater resilience to freight rate falls over recent weeks on strong trading volumes which has seen utilisation at one of the highest among bulk carrier segments, says Braemar ACM
Dry Bulk: Panamax
Latest From Panamax
Panama Canal transits stalled in May but water level is slowly rising
Rhetoric on the Panama Canal has taken a major positive turn. Authorised draught is up, reservation slots have increased and rain is adding to Gatun Lake water levels. But if you look at the actual transit statistics, this supply chain bottleneck is a still a long way from being solved
United Maritime adds third bareboat-chartered bulker amid dry bulk optimism
Within February the Nasdaq-listed owner has agreed a sale-and-leaseback transaction for another of its existing vessels
Seacon balances management services with controlled fleet growth to 29 ships
Chinese shipmanager also has an orderbook of another 13 newbuildings
Monjasa buys panamax as floating bunker storage
Monjasa said its fleet now consists of 13 tankers following the purchase of four secondhand vessels this year
Panamaxes outpace capesizes in Indian coal trade shift
Dry bulker trading patterns have altered this year as coal imports into India declined, while those into China spiked
Dry bulk should see healthy rates this year, says Braemar
Capesize lift should come in a few months as China’s industrial output ramps up following its zero-Covid policy, says shipping analyst Alexandra Alatari
Dry Bulk: Ultra & Supras
Latest From Ultra and supras
Surge of secondhand capesize deals triggered by 14-year peak in earnings
Greek owners identified as leading buyers with one-third of capesize purchases this year, as well as ranking first alongside Chinese owners for supramax buys
Dry bulk should see healthy rates this year, says Braemar
Capesize lift should come in a few months as China’s industrial output ramps up following its zero-Covid policy, says shipping analyst Alexandra Alatari
Dry bulk market failing to inspire
Hopes of a post-Chinese New Year boost fail to materialise with capesizes bearing the brunt of the losses, while sub-capesize segments in limbo trading in the $7,000 per day range mainly due to conflicting signals
Soyabean trade to lift demand for panamaxes
Panamaxes should benefit from higher soyabean exports out of Brazil, while demand for smaller-sized bulk carriers will be hurt by much lower sorghum volumes from the US
Sub-capesizes end the year rangebound at lower levels
Handysizes to panamaxes have shed value through the month, with average daily spot rates ending the year in a $11,000-$14,000 range, as activity dwindles ahead of the holidays and amid an uncertain economic outlook
Baltic Exchange considers updating supramax index to reflect size and trade shift
The London-based exchange held a working group to discuss the possible changes to a larger sized vessel in response to feedback. Potential changes to routes and weightings were also on the agenda
Tankers & Gas: LNG
Latest From LNG
CDB Leasing strikes $600m LNG carrier leaseback deal with Dynagas
Deal includes purchase options enabling Dynagas to buy back the ships when the charters mature
LNG: Challenging freight rate environment expected to prevail
According to Gibson analyst Matt Coates, the rate environment is likely to remain challenging for the remainder of 2024, and stay below 2023 and 2022 levels
Seoul boosts domestic yards with $10.8bn in new refund guarantees
Important South Korean banks have resumed support for mid-sized shipyards for the first time in 11 years, having suffered heavy losses during the previous industry downturn
Samsung Heavy fights Zvezda’s contract termination for 17 Russian icebreaking newbuilds
With Zvezda demanding repayment of $800m in advance payments and interest arrears, SHI says it will file an application with the Singapore Arbitration Court
US sanctions hit Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project
Türkiye’s Balut shipyard and Chinese shipyard operator Penglai Jutal Engineering Heavy Industries Co among those targeted
Don’t rely on China for LNG demand growth, forum told
Poten & Partners London forum explains how a pause on US export approvals, slowing Chinese demand, capacity growth and increased market concentration will affect the LNG market over the next decade
Tankers & Gas: LPG
Latest From LPG
LPG: Sailing towards summer stability?
Freight rates for VLGCs have recovered from winter lulls, and while the potential for further upside remains limited, they should remain profitable
Panama Canal transits stalled in May but water level is slowly rising
Rhetoric on the Panama Canal has taken a major positive turn. Authorised draught is up, reservation slots have increased and rain is adding to Gatun Lake water levels. But if you look at the actual transit statistics, this supply chain bottleneck is a still a long way from being solved
Idled tankers and gas carriers to cost $286bn by 2050 in decarbonisation scenario, new paper says
Tankers could be retrofitted to expand their lifespan, while significant hurdles exist for gas and LPG carriers to be converted
Capital Product Partners agrees acquisition of 10 Marinakis gas carriers
Nasdaq-listed partnership plans to part-fund the $756m purchase price using $182.5m in proceeds from recent boxship sales
A spoofer’s guide to sanctioned gas trades
The commercialisation of Automatic Identification System data in recent years and the increased access to vessel location data means sanctions skirters have to work harder to hide their activity
The week in newbuildings: Tanker orders rise almost 40% year on year
The tanker sector has contributed the lion’s share of newbuilding contracts so far in 2024, with 35% of orders attributed to tankers in terms of ship numbers
Tankers & Gas: Products
Latest From
India approves giant port project near Mumbai
The joint venture project is majority owned by Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority, and will cost nearly $10m
Container shipping’s relentless newbuild deluge is yet to reach its halfway mark
Container lines dodged a bullet this year courtesy of the Red Sea crisis, but the orderbook remains extremely ominous. Eventually, the supply upside of Cape of Good Hope reroutings will be overwhelmed by the flood of new ship deliveries
Trains fail to take the strain amid delay pain
Geopolitical strains have brought rail back into the range of options for shippers. But the volumes and cost mean it will only ever be a niche product
CDB Leasing strikes $600m LNG carrier leaseback deal with Dynagas
Deal includes purchase options enabling Dynagas to buy back the ships when the charters mature
Daily Briefing June 20 2024
Tankers: Good times roll into 2025 | LNG: Challenging freight rate environment expected to prevail | LPG: Sailing towards summer stability?
Two-year deal for new Euroseas boxship points to rate surge
Improvement in rates applies to older feeders as well as modern units as charterers look ahead for vessels, says broker
Tankers & Gas: Suez & Aframax
Latest From Suez and Aframax
Tanker linked to US-sanctioned shipmanager makes rare shipment of crude to Poland from Venezuela
This is the first time Venezuelan crude has been shipped to Poland in at least five years, since the US first imposed sanctions and was likely authorised by regulators under licences that allow European refiners ENI and Repsol to export cargoes produced under a joint venture with PdVSA
Eastern Pacific Shipping adds to extensive dual-fuel fleet with new LR2 order
Singapore’s Eastern Pacific Shipping has doubled its order for LNG dual-fuel LR2 tankers at China’s Guangzhou Shipyard International. It is now the second-largest shipowner of alternative fuel ships, after CMA CGM
Frangou flaunts diversity as durable Navios aims to stick around
Change from single-sector model to a diverse shipping company was an example of a venerable company’s ability to learn lessons
Prokopiou appoints Varvitsiotis chief executive at resurgent Greek shipyard
Since commercial activities restarted in February, the former Niarchos-controlled facility has repaired 11 vessels
Aframax exports first crude cargo from Vancouver’s newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline
Marshall Islands-flagged Dubai Angel is carrying the first cargo from the recently expanded Trans Mountain pipeline in Vancouver, vessel-tracking data suggests. The new pipeline is expected to add 25 to 30 aframax loadings per month when fully operational
High-flying Teekay Tankers primed for TMX pipeline boost
Mid-sized tanker specialist Teekay Tankers is primed to capitalise on the new TMX pipeline as emerging routes should boost demand for aframaxes. The company reported strong first-quarter earnings as it achieved near-record rates
Tankers & Gas: VLCC
Latest From VLCC
Secondhand tanker values reach their peak as newbuilding orders ascend
‘Focus has shifted to the high fleet age profile and the realisation that in a few years’ time, there will be plenty of tankers turning 20 years of age,’ says Gibson analyst Svetlana Lobaciova
Summertime blues come early for VLCCs as spot rates sink
There was only one VLCC newbuilding for delivery this year, and it hit the water back in January — the supply side is great. Not so on the demand side. VLCC rates have already entered the summer doldrums
Malta STS transfers of Russian oil quadruple after Greece shuts down Laconia Bay
Greece’s navy has twice extended no-sail notices that run until July 15 for Laconia Bay, which have prevented oil traders from using its international waters for ship-to-ship transfers away from port state control scrutiny
Tanker owners need clarity on Nigeria’s taxes
Some members are avoiding the region until they receive clear guidance on a practicable tax regime from Nigerian authorities, writes Intertanko legal counsel Selena Challacombe
Shipping stocks suffer ‘brutal’ pullback in June after long bull run
Shipowner shares have been hit this month by weaker VLCCs rates, expectations for lower interest rates, and speculation on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and eventual reopening of the Red Sea
1857 Copenhagen Treaty will make it hard to ban shadow fleet from Danish Straits
Unclos pollution rules may give government limited wiggle room, argues local law firm Gorrissen Federspiel
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