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Half-Year Outlook 2022

The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of so-called ‘stagflation’ mean that for many countries, recession will be hard to avoid. The consequences of that are not yet playing out in the shipping sectors reviewed in this half yearly outlook report, but even in containers where rates remain high and cash is still flowing into the lines’ bulging coffers, executives are already planning for the post-pandemic party hangover.


Russia adds compound interest to shipping’s challenges

The accumulation of disruption and supply chain shocks are transforming global trade as governments and businesses look to exchange efficiency for security

Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks Political Risk and Trade

LNG: Winter of content ahead for traders as global energy crunch drives profits

Russia’s war on Ukraine has upended oil, gas and agricultural markets, triggered record prices and placed energy security at the top of political agendas as inflationary pressures and an economic downturn signal a global recession

Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks Tankers and Gas

Shipbuilding: Latest super-cycle gives shipyards the upper hand

While ordering activity for containerships may have reached its peak, the appetite for new liquefied natural gas carriers shows no sign of slowing down. Furthermore, orders for bulk carriers have started to pick up, which could be followed by an upturn in new tanker contracting        

Shipbuilding Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks

Marine insurance: More stable P&I rates, more expensive H&M

The International Group is about to shrink from 13 members to 12, with mixed predictions on the impact on shipowners; but can another renewal round characterised by stiff rate hikes be avoided?

Insurance Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks

Iran and Venezuela show Russia a sanctions-skirting template

Sanctions on Russia amid self-sanctioning by Western oil traders have already upended oil markets; incoming bans on crude and refined products cargoes, shipping and marine insurance and reinsurance will further disrupt global tanker trade flows

Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks Political Risk and Trade

Tankers: Demand destruction threatens market turnaround

Not every vessel size will benefit from a significant recalibration of oil and refined product trades at a time of extreme geopolitical and global economic uncertainty

International Tankers and Gas Market Outlooks

LPG: Looking to China for demand boost

Globally, the LPG trade is expected to rise by 3.9% in 2022 to 116.9m tonnes

International Tankers and Gas Market Outlooks
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Containers: Eyeing the post-pandemic slowdown

Box shipping will likely have its most profitable year on record in 2022, but with demand easing and a flood of new tonnage coming into service, the peak may have already passed

Containers Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks

Dry bulk: Growing demand risks unlikely to upend strong rates

Slowing fleet growth is expected to support dry bulk rates, even as demand concerns emerge due to inflationary pressures globally 

Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks Dry Bulk

Regulation: Countdown to the CII

Regulation watchers are eyeing the January 1, 2023 deadline when the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator rule kicks in; the regulation could end up rewarding dirtier ships, and the market impact is hard to predict

Environment Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks

Ship finance: Falling cost scorches ‘alternative’ lenders

With many shipowners making more money than they can remember, and banks willing to cut margins to keep the business, it’s a buyer’s market and likely to remain so while good markets last

Mid-Year outlook Market Outlooks Finance